It looks like only some buyers of the Tesla Model 3 will be getting the $7,500 credit as Tesla’s eligibility for the federal credit may be gone before the Model 3s are sold.
The Model 3 is slated to be released first to the long list of paid reservation holders with the pricier models delivered first; this means by the time an entry-level Model 3 arrives, a 200,000 total vehicle limit under federal law will have been reached.
The Model 3 will not end up like the Model X, in terms of slow production, as the Model 3 comes with an easier to produce design as well as an assembly line made for mass production.
In December 2016, Tesla managed to sell 111,753 units of Model S and X. For 2017, Michigan-based analyst Alam Baum predicts that there’ll be 28,500 Model S sales, 16,300 Model X sales and 12,000 Model 3 sales. This means by the end of this year, Tesla may have sold 168,553 out of 200,000 eligible models.
Baum sees 2018 as the year that really heats up and the balance 30,000 +/- credits will quickly be wiped out. He estimates that the Model 3 could secure 105,500 units of sales while the Model s and Model X record 23,800 and 19,500 sales.
According to HybridCars, about 12,000 Model 3 buyers could get the full $7,500 credit this year while another 17,000 Model 3 buyers could see it next year. This means not all buyer would be getting the $7,500 discount.